Although the Germans still are convinced there is no danger looming:
outright deflation arrived in some countries of the euro area:
Greece:
by Vincent Flasseur/Reuters (via @ReutersFlasseur)
#ELSTAT PR: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (2005=100.0) ( November 2013 ) http://t.co/FYEIXUSLso
— ELSTAT (@StatisticsGR) December 9, 2013
#ELSTAT PR: Consumer Price Index (2009=100.0) ( November 2013 ) http://t.co/LMEtt0PeIw
— ELSTAT (@StatisticsGR) December 9, 2013
Cyprus:
Cyprus slips into deep deflation in November...
http://t.co/YCGBhIiKUO
— Cyprus News Agency (@cnainenglish) December 5, 2013
Debt /GDP trajectories for EA countries will be added later, but you can imagine it doesn't look good
(revisit for updates)
Slovenia:
In the 3rd quarter of 2013, services producer prices decreased on average by 0.4% both at the quarterly and at... http://t.co/Hma4h6fSq5
— Statistics Slovenia (@StatSlovenia) December 12, 2013
closing in:Portugal:
The CPI 12-month average rate was 0.4% in November http://t.co/NpHfo2gjiA
— INE Portugal (@pt_INE) December 11, 2013
Ireland:
Prices rise by 0.3% in the year to November http://t.co/sVKJmd1qVH
— CSO Statistics (@CSOIreland) December 12, 2013
Sweden: (EU, not euro area)
Inflation rate 0.1 percent http://t.co/P8ic7WZ5Cv
— Statistics Sweden (@StatsSweden) December 12, 2013
Poland: (EU, not euro area)
Price index of consumer goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2013 was 100.0 as compared to the third quarter of 2013 (prices remained on the same level).source: Central Statistics Office, Poland (Jan 15th 2014)
Price index of consumer goods and services in November 2013 decreased 0.2%, as related to October 2013.source: Central Statistics Office, Poland (Dec 13th 2013)
Latvia: 2013 During the year, consumer prices have dropped by 0.4% (Statistika Latvijas, Jan 13th 2013)
A look back in history (Germany, early 1930s, short version by Wikipedia)
revisit earlier blog post: The forgotten catastrophe... Deflation [EZR, December 2011]
(including analysis by Paul Krugman)
recognizing that deflation is in fact dangerous:
If inflation fell "below 1% in a persistent way, then we should of course be extremely concerned" - Otmar Issing, ECB chief econ, May 2003
— Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) December 5, 2013
France: The Consumer Prices Index decreased by 0.6% in January 2014; it rose by 0.7%, year-on-year
(Insee, Feb 20th 2014)
reactions by ECB officials:
Ecb's Makuch Says Does Not See Strong Deflation Pressures, Does Not See Deflation Ahead
— cigolo (@cigolo) December 10, 2013
More ECB action not ruled out but not needed for now: Coeure http://t.co/dS2Ll6OeLm
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 11, 2013
related articles:Eurozone 'sleepwalking into a decades-long deflation trap’ (Telegraph, Dec 28th 2013)
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