Sunday, March 31, 2013

NL: Available household income 3.2 percent down in 2012 & GDP shrinkage doubled

Data from CBS  - Statistics Netherlands:
(fortunately they translate their findings after releasing the Dutch version ;-))

Available household income 3.2 percent down in 2012 ( , Mar 29th 2013)

Economy shrinks by 0.4 percent in fourth quarter (, Mar 29th 2013)

Government deficit 4.1 percent in 2012 (, Mar 29th 2013)

just a few weeks earlier:

NL economic forecast 2013/14 (EZR, CPB data & various sources)

Friday, March 29, 2013

Dijsselbloem's bail-in doctrine - Template or not ?

The FT/Reuters Dijsselbloem interview transcript (

Bruegel Thinktank compilation: Eye on Cyprus  (, Mar 2013)
De Dijsselbloemdoctrine (Professor Bas Jacobs, ESB , Mar 29th 2013)

A punishment, not a solution (Ekathimerini, Mar 28th 2013)
Cyprus foreign minister: the EU has taken us back to 1974 (, Mar 28th 2013)

Europe: No Need To Worry, The Fire’s Downstairs (Pawel Morski, Mar 28th 2013)
Jeroen Dijsselbloem Has Finally Found A Way To Truly End The Euro Crisis — But It Will Be Messy (Business Insider, Mar 27th 2013)
Europe’s Cyprus blunder and its consequences (Nicolas Véron,, Mar 25th 2013)
Cyprus has finally killed myth that EMU is benign (Ambrose Evan-Pritchard,Telegraph, Mar 27th 2013)
Cyprus Shows Trust in ECB Is Misplaced (Megan Greene, Bloomberg, Mar 27th 2013)
Cyprus foreign minister says only Luxembourg backed Nicosia in Eurogroup
(Ekathimerini, Mar 27th 2013)
Russians In Cyprus: It's Not About Tax It's About The Rule Of Law And Property Rights 
(, Mar 26th 2013)



Malta's banking sector 'robust and stable' - government (Times of Malta, Mar 28th 2013)
Portugal government says no risk Cyprus deal can be template (Reuters, Mar 28th 2013)
Spain Believes Dijsselbloem  (WSJ, Mar 27th 2013)
Sowing fear among savers (Editorial, El Pais engl, Mar 27th 2013)

Luxembourg Government: « European financial markets need strong international financial sectors
Interview mit Jean-Claude Juncker (, Mar 27th 2013)
Luxembourg minister says Germany seeks euro zone "hegemony" (Reuters, Mar 26th 2013)


Support for Mr Dijsselbloem 
Rutte: toename steun voor lijn-Dijsselbloem (RTLZ, Mar 28th 2013)
ECB's Knot backs Dijsselbloem comments on bank rescues (Reuters, Mar 28th 2013)


Sehr spezieller Sonderfall“ Interview mit Dr. Andreas Dombret in der Süddeutsche Zeitung
A very special "special case"
(, Mar 27th 2013)
Dijsselbloem: spaarders kunnen gerust zijn, want Cyprus is uniek (, Mar 19th 2013)

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Cyprus - Capital Controls

Limits now in place for re-opening of banks - text of decree included (Cyprus Mail , Mar 28th 2013)

Reopening of financial institutions - Application for interim measures which restrict banking
(Central Bank of Cyprus via Google translate) (via @LorcanRK)

Statement by the European Commission on the capital controls imposed by the Republic of Cyprus
( (via @GwenTerHorst)

Cypriot Ministry of Finance

Cyprus shambles  (Hugo Dixon, Reuters, Mar 28th 2013)(via @Hugodixon)

Factbox: Cyprus imposes capital controls (Reuters, Mar 28th 2013)

The capital controls in Cyprus and the Icelandic experience (Jon Danielsson,,  Mar 28th 2013)(via @rszbt & @boomerangomics)

Barry Eichengreen: The Capital Levy in Theory and Practice ( @ewaldeng)

note: there will be some comments on those controls added later

Kapitalverkehrskontrollen (German expression)

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Cyprus - some facts

by Vincent Flasseur, Reuters (via @ReutersFlasseur)

by Vincent Flasseur, Reuters (via @ReutersFlasseur)

Austria, Netherlands, Germany, Cyprus: Debt to GDP 1996 - 2011 (chart, Google statistics)

Deposit haircut would affect tens of thousands of non-Cypriots (Cyprus Mail, Mar 21st 2013)

Bank of Cyprus: Just 5% Russian deposits, read more: 
Euro zone clamor drowned out Cypriot bank warnings (Reuters, Mar 22nd 2013)
Juncker rules out haircut on Cypriot debt (Reuters, Dec 21st 2012) (via @ALeipold)
COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION of 10 July 2012 on the National Reform Programme 2012 of Cyprus and delivering a Council opinion on the Stability Programme of Cyprus, (EU, pdf, 4pages)
How the restructuring of Laiki would work (Cyprus Mail, Mar 24th 2013)
INTERVIEW-Cyprus Popular board thought EU would not let it fail (Reuters, Mar 25th 2013)
Cyprus banks and UK deposits (Coppola comment blog, Mar 26th 2013)
Cyprus Details Bank Revamp (WSJ, Mar 27th 2013)
Wie sich Zyperns Banken in den Ruin spekulierten (WSJ_DE, Mar 28th 2013)
Laiki Bank is only a symptom. The problem is elsewhere! (Klaus Kastner, Mar 29th 2013)
Insight: Inside Laiki - Countdown to catastrophe (Reuters, Apr 2nd 2013)
Special Report: How a Greek bank infected Cyprus (Reuters, Jun 13th 2012)
The Depositor Haircut (, May 9th 2013)

Cyprus: Just The Facts (Institute of International Finance)(via @Bruegelpisani)

Eichengreen, Faini, von Hagen, Wyplosz:
Economic Aspects of the Annan Plan for the Solution of the Cyprus Problem (2004, pdf,83 pages,eng) (via @alexapostolides)

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Cyprus bailout deal (Eurogroup meeting March 15/16)

Official statements:
Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus ( (via @FinPermRep)

Goedkeuring steunprogramma voor Cyprus ( (via @mathijsbouman)
- een herstructurering van de bankensector. (Restructuring of the banking sector)
- privatiseringen en de verkoop van een deel van de Cypriotische goudvoorraad.(privatizations & sell-off of a part of the gold reserve)
English translation (unofficial!)(Dutch finance ministry:approval support package for Cyprus)

Breakdown of who holds Cypriot bank deposits.  (ECB, pdf, 1 page) (via @charlesforelle)

Statement by the President of the Republic Mr Nicos Anastasiades (, Mar 16th 2013)

Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades' nationally televised speech (

History: Cyprus adopts the euro (, Jan 1st 2008)

by Vincent Flasseur/Reuters (via @ReutersFlasseur)

Press reports & opinons:
Savers forced to bear costs in Cyprus bailout (Reuters, Mar 16th 2013) (via @rdfemmott)
Cyprus set to receive international bailout (DW(.de), Mar 16th 2013) 
Euro-Länder bitten Zyperns Bankkunden zur Kasse (Die Welt, Mar 16th 2013) (via @Tiefseher)
Savers forced to bear costs in Cyprus bailout (Cyprus Mail, Mar 16th 2013)
Shock in Cyprus as bailout brings bank account haircut [update] (Ekathimerini, Mar 16th 2013)
Cyprus Bank Deposits to Be Taxed in $13 Billion Bailout (Bloomberg, Mar 16th 2013)
Cyprus Needs to Find a Quick Debt Fix (S. Nixon,WSJ, Mar 16h 2013)
Why Cyprus's rescue matters to us (R. Peston,BBC, Mar 16th 2013)
Cyprus Depositor Tax: Genius Plan or the End of the Euro? (K. Whelan, Forbes, Mar 16th 2013)
Cyprus bail-out risks UK troops’ savings  (Telegraph, Mar 16th 2013)
Cyprus bailout - Your stories (BBC, Mar 16th 2013)
Rehn Rules Out Future ‘Stability Fees’ on Euro Bank Depositors (Bloomberg, Mar 16th 2013)
A stupid idea whose time had come (J. Cotterill,FT Alphaville, Mar 16th 2013)
Sowing the wind (Coppola Comment, Mar 16th 2013)
The Cyprus precedent (F. Salmon, Reuters, Mar 16th 2013)
“The Cyprus bailout deal is a disaster for EU rules and Single Market principles” (Sharon Bowles, Mar 16th 2013)
Eurozone seeks to broker deal on Cyprus bailout (Times of India (AP),Mar 16th 2013)
Cash machines EMPTIED across Cyprus as 60,000 British savers face losing MILLIONS after £8.7billion EU bailout imposes tax on all of nation's bank accounts (Daily Mail, Mar 16th 2013)

Cyprus from MoU developments & analysis until Mar 15th 2013
Cyprus bailout: Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

Some developments of 2012 (<=update Mar 22nd 2013,EZRbackground)

selected reactions on Twitter: 

Sarris says first Eurogroup deal a 'success,' would have prevented Laiki closure
(Ekathimerini, Mar 27th 2013)
Cyprus Finance Minister Sarris Quits After Brokering Rescue (Bloomberg, Apr 2nd 2013)

Saturday, March 2, 2013

TV interview Beppe Grillo by Dutch public TV (Italian)

Italian language & Dutch subtitles
(aired: Sept 4th 2012)
    (use link if embedded video doesn't play)

Insight: Beppe Grillo - Italian clown or political mastermind? (Reuters, Mar 7th 2013)
Italy’s Beppe Grillo: Meet the Rogue Comedian Turned Kingmaker  (Time, Mar 7th 2013)
Why Beppe Grillo won in Italy: it wasn't because of social media  (Guardian,Mar 9th 2013)

more video footage re Italy 

news feature in Dutch & Italian language 
(aired February 22th 2013)
(c) by Nieuwsuur (NOS) source:

Italian impasse (Dutch,Italian & English)
(Interview Bill Emmott of The Economist)
(aired February 26th 2013)
(c) by Nieuwsuur (NOS)source:

Friday, March 1, 2013

The Netherlands: Economic forecast 2013 & 2014

CPB forecast:

Table Main Economic Indicators 2011-2014 (28 February 2013)
CPB World Trade Monitor (including December 2012)

CPB:Doesn't lower growth expectation for 2013 of 0,5%, 2014 growth of 1%( Feb28 2013)#


IMF set to cut growth forecasts if U.S. spending is cut  (Reuters, Feb 28th 2013)
With a signature, Obama triggers sequester's cuts  (The Hill, Mar 2nd 2013)

Ten QE Questions (N. Roubini, Project Syndicate, Feb 28th 2013)

The Netherlands
Sharp increase unemployment (CBS-Dutch statistics, Feb 21st 2013)

Exports contribute 29 percent to Dutch economy ( (Dutch statistics), Feb 7th 2013)
Re-exports and higher prices largely account for growth Dutch exports  ( (NL statistics)Feb 22)
[update] Natural gas revenues reduce public deficit  ( (Dutch statistics) , Nov 22nd 2012)
Oil- and Gas revenues rose considerably (2012) ( , Apr 18th 2013)
Russia Must Cut Break-Even Oil Price to $80, Citigroup Says  (Bloomberg, Jun 14th 2013)

Economic forecast 2012-14: EU gradually overcoming headwinds (, Feb 22nd 2013)

included in budget projections:
Dutch Deficit to Widen 0.6 Points on SNS Reaal, Minister Says (Bloomberg, Feb 1st 2013)

+ ABNAmro (profit) contributes to budget ( Mar 1st 2013) #

+ Dijsselbloem:Better than expected results (telecom auction=3,8 Bn €) included in budget projection 
   ( ,Dec 20th 2013) #

+ Clarity about profit transfer DNB (, <=NL government,Feb 15th 2013)#
Prof. Hoogduin criticizes 'trick' of FinMin Dijsselbloem (, Feb 25t 2013) #
Prof. Eijffinger:Better DNB results irresponsible creative accounting(,Feb 17 2013)#
Dijsselbloem: DNB deal not an accounting trick  ( , Feb 27th 2013) #

# = Dutch language