The final Greek default and exit

Dear reader,

well everyone including me was caught by surprise when Giorgos Papandreou made his announcement of a desired referendum to be held in Greece within a few months. (January 2012 was speculated on). Well actually I was taken by surprise by THIS particular move but was already prepared for a "surprising backpedaling first indicated by Greek finance minister Venizelos when a broader parliamentary majority was suddenly seen as desired by him (and possibly Papandreou also) 

So in a comment from mid of last week i indicated in another (political) blog already that this whole process of "haircuts", "summits" lengthy negotiations etc could have been a well thought PLOY in order to get enough time for some influential (and as a matter of fact super rich) Greeks to pack up their loot and do a runner (to safe haven) before everything and everyone is being in danger of getting in the focus of increasingly effective tax collectors with sharpened teeth by European task force. Also the privileges of the Greek political class would be on the line once the very strict rules of austerity and control of public spending would also effect their freedom of doing just what they seem of advantage for their own interests. Let's not forget that the Papandreou family ruled the country for years if not decades with the current offspring of that "ruling family" now being in danger to loose this "throne" for good. Same applies for the so called opposition where also political party was used foremost to promote individual political careers not to make fundamentally different politics. So these "dynasties" along with their oligarch friends in the background are now in danger to loose their grip on the country when the EU or better Eurozone partners attach too many strings for the shipment of every little package of their relief funds for Greece. As it happened last time when the official report of the so called "Troika" was awaited first before Greece got the last chunk of 8 bn € released. Although it was clear all along for political analysts that they won't actually stop the release of aid, it was delayed to point that Greece had in the end to admit that they still got more reserves to pay public sector from than they initially admitted. Also they were fully aware of the newly transparency which came along with the "visits" of the troika when employees of Greek ministries tried to block access of monitors from outside in order to keep things under the carpet where they think they belong to remain.

The latest move from Mr. Papandreou or G-Pap as some analysts already call him wasn't expected and certainly caught all other European politicians by surprise who are now realizing that the whole time and effort of summits , negotiations etc might have been in vane in order to get Greece on the right track again. So far i haven't read any statements from individual banks or the IIF or Mr. Dallara on this new situation but I can imagine that maybe the hammered out deal with Merkozy is now off again and everyone will wait what the outcome of that referendum will be ... where it is widely expected to say "No" and therefore make all previous orderly arrangements void. Some Greek journalists already stated in a first reaction "Oh my God!" added by a question "Why now and not much earlier ?". Well ..good point why first taking the pain of almost 2 years in lengthy negotiations and when a final deal was made to cut debt even in half to risk it nevertheless and go then to the (opinion)polls ??? Well i gave a possible explanation above since it is perhaps to naive to assume that politicians have no brain at all but perhaps or more certainly have a (mostly hidden) own agenda.

Well one thing is certain: The fear factor has once taken its grip on the international markets not even a week after Merkozy tried successfully to offer markets a sedative pill. G-Pap just injected pure adrenaline yesterday evening.


update: As it now turns out members of his party try to convince him to form a broader government and no longer demand a referendum. It's  the question if he survives a vote of confidence this friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/us-greece-papandreou-idUSTRE7A060620111101

references:
Luxusimmobilien in London: Griechen im Kaufrausch
Reiche Griechen am Pranger
Angst vor Staatspleite Der Beutezug der Griechen-Millionäre
Griechen-Konten: Schweiz pokert mit Steuerabkommen
ANGST VOR SCHULDENSCHNITT Hier plündern die Griechen ihre Konten
Bigger haircuts put strain on greek banks
Bank deposits safe, says official
Greek banks offering high interest rates to retain deposits
Greek banks' debt to ECB totaled 103 billion euros in June
Troika recommends 8bn bailout payout
Fast cars and loose fiscal morals: there are more Porsches in Greece than taxpayers declaring 50,000 euro incomes
Dec 28th resignation bomb (Greek)
Dec 28th Financial crime prosecutors resign citing interference
Dec 28th Financial prosecutors resign, claiming interference
Dec 31st A new Greek area: from downpayment to downpayment ( Frankfurter Allgemeine)
Jan 02nd Greek supreme tax collector resigned (NZZ ger)
Jan 05th  Financial prosecutors identify third-party influence
Jan 12th  Special report: Greece claims magnate stole from his own bank
Jan 13th  Greece’s Creditors Break Off Debt Talks Amid Coupon Dispute
Jan 16th  Why fighting tax evasion fails
Jan 17th  Will hedge fund holdouts scuttle Greek swap deal?
Jan 17th  Greece prepares to give way to banks to secure debt deal
Jan 17th  Greek Debt Talks Resume With Agreement Seen by End of This Week
Jan 18th  Factbox: What happens if Greece defaults?
Jan 19th  Hedgefonds drohen Athen mit einer Menschenrechtsklage
Jan 19th  Arrest of ex-mayor of Thessaloniki recommended
Jan 19th  Five arrests made in Crete over tax evasion
Jan 19th  Full PSI deal to come by Monday